July 7, 2026
Sports Arbitrage in Prediction Markets
Sports markets move quickly, but the core discipline stays the same: match the exact contract, confirm the executable prices, and size only where the combined payout math works.
Blog
Field notes on arbitrage and market structure.
Short, practical essays on cross-venue price gaps, value betting, live sports latency, and no-vig fair value. Written for builders who want the mechanics, not marketing language.
June 20, 2026
Value Betting Is Not the Same as Arbitrage
A value bet can still lose. An arbitrage construction is different: it is built around mutually covering positions and a positive payout spread after costs.
May 23, 2026
Why Live Arbitrage Depends on Latency
A live gap can be real for a few seconds and gone before both legs fill. Data freshness, order-book depth, and venue delay decide whether the alert is actionable.
April 14, 2026
No-Vig Fair Value for Prediction Markets
Before comparing prices, remove the market's embedded margin and translate each side into a cleaner fair-value estimate.